Space deterrence remains an art of understanding the opponent’s psychology, valued possessions, and political objectives, as space deterrence is just a thematic or geographic variant of deterrence in general. The difficulty is that any reason to think that space deterrence may be easier to achieve than equivalents on Earth has a counter that may highlight why, in some circumstances, space deterrence may be harder to impose in the mind of the adversary.įirst, politics, strategy, and deterrence relationships in space are extensions of those on Earth. But general ground rules for strategic thought can be provided. With the tools of space warfare spreading, then, how does one deter an adversary from attacking one’s valuable and essential space infrastructure that is responsible for precision warfare as well as precision farming? This is a very difficult question to answer, and there are no direct and holistic ones to be given. However, as those narrow discussion tend to delve into the technical and tactical weeds, there are useful principles to remember when considering space deterrence on a more strategic level. Additionally, many Earth-based weapons such as missiles, attack aircraft, and naval vessels can bombard ground facilities if they are in range. Most tools of space warfare today, of which America, China, and Russia lead, include jamming and Earth-based kinetic-kill capabilities that are ground, sea, or air missile based. Indeed, it is crucial to think about what systems any space power may value above all others, which they may be able to suffer losing, and which losses may provoke a stern reaction. ![]() ![]() For example, a Planet Labs imaging satellite being jammed outside of a crisis is a different incident compared to a Keyhole imagery satellite being destroyed during a Taiwan crisis. Reasoned analysis focuses on applying imagined thresholds of sensitivity and reaction based on the types of satellites attacked, how they are attacked, and when they are attacked in a crisis. As consensus emerges on the possibility that, should a major war occur, satellites will mostly likely be attacked or harassed in one way or another, there is increasing deliberation on ‘space deterrence’, or how to prevent would-be aggressors from attacking satellites and other parts of space infrastructure on Earth.
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